Modeling Global Climate Change: Successes and Challenges-地球系统数值模拟教育部重点实验室

Modeling Global Climate Change: Successes and Challenges

发布时间：2017-09-14 点击数：

报告题目: Modeling Global Climate Change: Successes and Challenges

主讲人： Dezheng Sun University of Colorado

时间：2017年9月20日（周三）14:00-16:00

地点：蒙民伟科技大楼南楼S818

讲座简介：

The talk will begin with a short history of modeling global climate change, followed by a critical assessment of the state-of-the-art global climate models used for the IPCC assessment. Key successes of the models from a climate dynamicist’s prospective are highlighted, together with the major challenges that modelers still face. Focus will be given to the climate of the tropical Pacific, in particular, the El Niño-Souther Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. How well is ENSO simulated in the state-of-the-art models? How do we derive the best guess from a diverse model projections about the response of ENSO to increased greenhouse gas forcing? How common biases in the simulations of ENSO by the models may affect their projections of global mean temperature change in the coming decades? In addition to addressing these questions, the talk will also explore the underlying causes for the model biases, focusing on the representation/parameterization of deep convection in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.

主讲人简介:

Dr. Dezheng Sun ’s research aims to understand the stability of the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, addressing questions such as whether we will have stronger and more frequent El Niño events, or whether the whole planet may undergo a Venus-style, run-away instability in response to anthropogenic forcing. Dr. Sun approaches these questions through the use of a hierarchy of mathematical models for the climate system.

Dr. Sun received his Ph.D. in Meteorology from MIT and had worked in leading climate modeling centers including the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) at Princeton, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) at Boulder. He taught both undergraduate and graduate courses in the area of global change science in University of Colorado at Boulder, and has won many grant awards from the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Dr. Sun has published his work in Science, J. Climate, and many other prominent journals.